The US Treasury yield curve
What the US government pays to borrow, from one month to thirty years, on September 28, 2026 — beside the same curve a month and a year earlier.
In short
The 10-year minus the 2-year is +32 bp — not inverted; the 10-year minus the 3-month is +96 bp — not inverted. Normal: the 10-year pays 5.24%, 0.96 points more than the 13-week bill's 4.28%.
| Maturity | September 28, 2026 | August 28, 2026 | September 26, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 4.04% | 3.84% | 4.22% |
| 1.5 month | 4.14% | 3.83% | 4.20% |
| 2 month | 4.20% | 3.86% | 4.17% |
| 3 month | 4.28% | 3.90% | 4.02% |
| 4 month | 4.33% | 3.94% | 4.00% |
| 6 month | 4.41% | 4.02% | 3.83% |
| 1 year | 4.59% | 4.15% | 3.67% |
| 2 year | 4.92% | 4.34% | 3.63% |
| 3 year | 5.01% | 4.41% | 3.66% |
| 5 year | 5.06% | 4.48% | 3.76% |
| 7 year | 5.15% | 4.59% | 3.96% |
| 10 year | 5.24% | 4.73% | 4.20% |
| 20 year | 5.60% | 5.21% | 4.74% |
| 30 year | 5.56% | 5.22% | 4.77% |
What it is
The yield curve lines up what the US government pays to borrow for different lengths of time, from one month to thirty years. Normally the longer the loan, the higher the yield, and the curve slopes upward.
When short-term yields rise above long-term ones the curve is called inverted. The gaps most watched are the 10-year minus the 2-year, and the 10-year minus the 3-month. An inversion has come before most US recessions since the 1960s, though not every inversion was followed by one soon after.
What moves it
- The short end follows the Federal Reserve: bills and the 2-year move with what the market expects the Fed to do next.
- The long end follows expectations for growth and inflation over many years, plus the extra yield investors want for lending that long (the term premium).
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Treasury's table. The Treasury publishes these once a day, after the market closes; a basis point (bp) is a hundredth of a percentage point.
More Treasury yields
Questions
Is the yield curve inverted right now?
On September 28, 2026 the 10-year yield minus the 2-year was +32 bp and the 10-year minus the 3-month +96 bp. A negative gap means that part of the curve is inverted.
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
That investors are paid more to lend for a short time than for a long one — usually because they expect interest rates to fall. An inversion has come before most US recessions since the 1960s, though not every inversion was followed by one soon after.
Where do these yields come from?
From the US Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, which it publishes each trading day after the close. They are par yields: the coupon at which a new Treasury of each maturity would trade at face value.
See the price, the chart and the market around it
Prices, charts, analysts' views and news live inside SigniBull, where our data licences let us show them. A free account opens all of it — email only, no card.
Create a free account